Big ballparks result in small HR numbers

By David Dorsey
Fort Myers News Press

Baseball players blame the historical home run power outage in the Florida State League on bigger ballparks, better pitching and one other popular, but misguided reason: the ever-present heat and humidity.

"It gets so hot," said Boston Red Sox slugger David Ortiz, who played for the FSL's Fort Myers Miracle in 1997. "You've got big fields. And in the summer, the ball doesn't carry so far."

Ortiz has mastered hitting — he hit .300, with 47 home runs last season — but he lacks a master's in physics.

According to Bob Adair, a retired physics professor at Yale University and author of "The Physics of Baseball," the heat and humidity actually should help batters hit homers.

"The heat, by and large, actually adds to the distance the ball goes," Adair, 81, said from his home in New Haven, Conn. "Hot air is lighter than cold air. A warm baseball goes farther than a cold baseball."

In other words, the heat and humidity can't take too much blame for the lack of homers hit by Miracle players since they began playing at Hammond Stadium in 1992.

At 7:05 p.m. Saturday, the Miracle — an affiliate of the Minnesota Twins — will begin their 15th season in Fort Myers, facing the Sarasota Reds at Hammond Stadium. The Miracle will open their season at 7:05 tonight in Sarasota.

Since 1992, only two Miracle players have hit 20 home runs in one season. Matthew LeCroy, now a designated hitter with the Washington Nationals, hit 20 in 1999. Tommy Peterman, who never reached the major leagues, hit 20 in 1998.

Since the FSL, a Class A minor league, began keeping records in 1936, only four players have reached the 30-homer mark in one season. The last player to do so, current New York Mets first baseman Carlos Delgado, did it in 1992 for the Dunedin Blue Jays.

The FSL home run leader in each season has hit an average of 20.1 homers, compared to the average of 36.8 home runs hit over the same time span by the annual major-league leader.

Adair said the size of ballparks, not the heat and humidity, factor into the reason for the discrepancy.

All of the FSL teams play in ballparks that are also used for major-league spring training. Those ballparks usually try to mimic the dimensions of each big-league team's home field, and they are usually much larger than the parks seen in the lower minor leagues.

"I think that you have the answer: Major-league parks are a little bigger than minor-league parks," Adair said. "And a 1 percent difference in distance translates into about a 7 percent difference in home run probabilities.

"Also, high humidity does not impede the ball but at the same total air pressure actually adds an inch or two to a 400-foot drive, since water vapor is lighter than air."

For those who failed physics class and can't keep up with Adair, there are other reasons, related to baseball, for young sluggers transforming into frustrated hackers in the FSL.

"This is a league where you learn to hit," new Miracle manager Kevin Boles said. "It helps you from a developmental standpoint to teach guys how to hit and not worry about power numbers. We're not talking about results right now. We're talking about having a good approach at the plate."

Twins designated hitter Rondell White, who has averaged 15 big-league home runs over the past 11 seasons, managed to hit just four homers, despite a .316 batting average, in 111 games for West Palm Beach of the FSL in 1992.

"It's a pitchers' league," said White, who was 20 at the time. "It's real tough. I hit four. People try to hit line drives. At night, the ball doesn't travel much. I can't explain it."

White, however, may have been on to something when he said: "I was a very young hitter in that league. It taught me how to stay on the ball and not pull everything. Your power comes later, anyway. A lot of guys get older, and they start seeing the ball better. Then, when you get in the big leagues, you get better pitches to hit."

First baseman Brock Peterson, who hit 12 home runs for the Miracle last season, returned to the team this year. He had a .250 batting average last season, with 102 strikeouts. He hopes to raise the former number while lowering the latter.

"Everybody's got to play on the same field," Peterson said. "But it's frustrating when you hit a ball, and you have nothing to show for it. Maybe I'll know how to pace myself better. This is a pretty tough ballpark."

New Miracle third baseman David Winfree hit 16 home runs last season at low-Class A Beloit, Wis. He has been told by a number of people not to get caught up in his home run total this season in Fort Myers.

"Personally, in my heart, can I hit double-digit home runs?" Winfree said. "Yeah. But I'm not going to guarantee it, because I know all the factors."

There is one more factor: If you're good enough to hit 30 home runs in the FSL, the odds are that you won't stick around the league long enough to do so.

"If a guy is that good, why keep him down there?" Twins general manager Terry Ryan said.

Ortiz was that good. After Ortiz hit 13 home runs in just 61 games for the Miracle, Ryan promoted him to Double-A New Britain, where Ortiz hit 14 homers in 69 games.

Ryan promoted Ortiz again, to Triple-A Salt Lake City, where the Dominican Republic native slugged four more homers in 10 games before earning a 15-game call-up to Minnesota. "Big Papi" added one more homer for good measure. He finished the season with a total of 32 home runs, averaging one for every 18.37 at-bats.

Had Ortiz stayed in Fort Myers for the whole season in 1997, could he have matched Delgado by hitting 30 home runs here?

"What do you think?" Ortiz said with a grin.

TURNING ON THE POWER

A look at all of the double-digit home run hitters for the Fort Myers Miracle since 1994, the first year for which records were available:

Year	Player	Homers	Games
1994	Todd Walker	10	46
1995	Charles "Bubba" Smith	13	61
1995	Chad Rupp	12	107
1996	None
1997	Jacque Jones	15	131
1997	Troy Fortin	13	111
1997	David Ortiz	13	61
1998	Tommy Peterman	20	135
1998	Matthew LeCroy	12	51
1998	Steve Hacker	11	62
1999	Matthew LeCroy	20	89
1999	Michael Cuddyer	16	130
1999	Allen Butler	14	137
1999	Rafael Alvarez	10	83
2000	Dustan Mohr	11	101
2000	Ruben Salazar	11	124
2000	Kevin Hodge	10	130
2001	Kelley Gulledge	10	58
2002	Kevin West	12	129
2002	Rob Bowen	10	100
2003	Garrett Jones	18	117
2004	None
2005	Scott Whitrock	15	111
2005	Brock Peterson	12	119

30 FSL HOMERS

Since the Florida State League began keeping records in 1936, only four players have slugged 30 home runs in one season:

1950: Edward Levy, Sanford, 33
1971: James Fuller, Miami, 33
1992: Carlos Delgado, Dunedin, 30
2004: Brandon Sing, Daytona, 32