Twins show well-justified confidence is well-deserved

Jim Souhan
Star Tribune

FORT MYERS, FLA. -- We could wait until the 2005 Twins play their blood-feud scrimmage against hated Concordia on Wednesday. We could wait until they play an actual Grapefruit League game, or hold even their second full-squad workout of the spring.

But why pretend to analyze February calisthenics?

As our boys of summer wrapped up their first full day of spring training on Saturday, as Joe Mauer smacked line drives and Johan Santana threw effortless fastballs, you got the distinct feeling that this could be the best Twins team to kill grass at Hammond Stadium since Gene Larkin hit that fateful fly ball in October of '91.

Why?

Well, the Twins led the league in ERA last year and didn't graduate any seniors.

Look at the rotation. Santana might never replicate the brilliance he displayed the last four months of the 2004 season, but he enters this season healthier and more confident than he was a year ago, and he gives the Twins a true ace.

The law of averages dictates that Brad Radke can't pitch that well with so few victories again, that Kyle Lohse can't spend another year wasting a wonderful arm. It's also logical to guess that Carlos Silva might not win 14 games again, but that's not what you hear from the Twins' staff, which raves about his work ethic and willingness to learn.

Joe Mays, coming off Tommy John surgery, is clamoring to compete for the No. 3 spot in the rotation. If the other four do their jobs, he would be a bonus as a competent fifth starter, and yet on Saturday pitching coach Rick Anderson said Mays is throwing as well as anyone in camp, and Mays is saying he feels like he did before his All-Star year in 2001.

If one of the starters fails, Scott Baker, perhaps the most polished pitcher in a farm system stocked with quality arms, could be this year's surprise.

Look at the bullpen. Last year, this was supposed to be the Twins' weakness, and it became their strength, with Joe Nathan becoming a dominant closer, Juan Rincon admirably handling the setup role, and a handful of power arms chewing up middle innings.

This year, they're all back, boasting more experience and just as much velocity. Nathan, Rincon, J.C. Romero, Grant Balfour and Jesse Crain all throw between 93 and 98 with multiple pitches.

For the fourth straight year, the Twins expect to score more runs. This year it makes sense. Mauer and Justin Morneau are the hitters the Twins have been waiting on for years. Kicking around potential lineups on Saturday, manager Ron Gardenhire said he might go with Shannon Stewart, Mauer, Torii Hunter, Morneau, Lew Ford, Jacque Jones, Michael Cuddyer, the shortstop (perhaps switch-hitter Nick Punto) and Luis Rivas.

That's a seven-deep lineup with a couple of speedy small-ball players at the end. Morneau could become the Twins' first 40-homer hitter since Killebrew, and Mauer could become the most professional hitter in baseball.

"If he catches five or six days a week, then batting him second means he should be able to get up to 500 at-bats," Gardenhire said. "I think that's what you want."

Last year, Jones finished second on the Twins in homers and RBI. If he has the same season this year, he could wind up fourth or fifth in those categories.

Twins players will tell you how much they'll miss the fielding of shortstop Cristian Guzman and third baseman Corey Koskie. My view: The Twins won't miss Guzman. His range was limited by his unwillingness to dive. In terms of on-base and slugging percentage and bat-handling, he may be one of baseball's worst offensive players.

Koskie? His departure hurts more. He's an excellent fielder who got a few of the Twins' biggest hits last year -- in the pivotal victory at Cleveland and with the double that, had it stayed in play, might have given the Twins a two-games-to-none lead on the Yankees in the playoffs.

But even for me, a Koskie guy, I can envision Cuddyer handling the position ably and producing near Koskie's levels.

Shortstop is a problem until someone proves they can handle the job, but at worst the Twins will wind up with a no-hit, good-field option like Juan Castro or Augie Ojeda, which won't kill them.

"It's going to be a fun lineup," Gardenhire said. "It's kind of nice on paper. These people are very confident we can do some damage."

Even in the rose-colored world of spring training, the Twins' confidence is well-deserved.